noise2signal

There Is Only So Much Nothing

Internet forum archive, 2013

user19384

Bitcoin hit $100.

I was going to buy some when it was $12.

Guess I missed it.

cryptobro42

You didn’t miss it.

There are only 21 million.

user19384

Yeah, but it already went from basically nothing to $100.

Who is buying it from here?

cryptobro42

People who want Bitcoin.

user19384

Why?

cryptobro42

There are only 21 million.

user19384

Beanie Babies were scarce too.

⸻

Family group chat, 2021

Dad

So this Bitcoin thing.

Isn’t it basically Beanie Babies?

Me

Not really.

There are 21 million Bitcoin.

There will never be more.

Meanwhile governments are going to keep printing currency.

You can disagree about the price, but that’s basically the bet.

Dad

There’s nothing behind it.

Me

What’s behind a dollar?

Dad

The United States government.

Me

That’s the part I’m talking about.

Dad

lol

⸻

Three months later

Dad

What do you think about Solana?

Me

Oh no.

⸻

Financial Independence Forum, 2037

indexmaxxer

I don’t understand why you people make this so complicated.

Just buy the global equity index every paycheck.

Literally nobody beats it over 40 years.

coldstorage

Nobody?

indexmaxxer

Fine, basically nobody.

coldstorage

And everyone knows this?

indexmaxxer

Yes.

That’s the point.

coldstorage

Everyone automatically buys the same companies every two weeks regardless of valuation and you don’t see anything strange about that?

indexmaxxer

They’re profitable companies.

There are real cash flows underneath them.

coldstorage

Sure.

At what price?

indexmaxxer

You sound like one of those Bitcoin people from twenty years ago.

coldstorage

I am one of those Bitcoin people from twenty years ago.

indexmaxxer

Then you should understand why indexing works.

coldstorage

That is exactly why I’m nervous.

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Machine Economy Forum, 2051

probeDaddy

Anyone looking at Proxima manufacturing contracts?

oldBitcoiner

No.

probeDaddy

Why not?

oldBitcoiner

Because no human being is going to Proxima Centauri.

probeDaddy

Humans don’t need to.

oldBitcoiner

Great.

So now we’re buying factories nobody can visit.

probeDaddy

Autonomous probes can.

oldBitcoiner

The probe hasn’t even arrived.

probeDaddy

That’s why the contract is cheap.

oldBitcoiner

What happens if it lands on the planet one to the left?

probeDaddy

You bought a single-planet contract?

lol

You need the three-body manufacturing index.

Individual landing-site exposure is for degens.

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Stellar Assets Discord, 2058

yieldfarmer_actual

Comets are massively undervalued.

You get raw materials and energy replenishment while maintaining trajectory.

Basically mobile infrastructure.

sunmaxi

Comets are a scam.

yieldfarmer_actual

Of course you’d say that.

sunmaxi

They sell you on “recharging while moving” like it’s a car.

The math doesn’t work that way at industrial scale.

Factories produce more probes.

Probe factories are the long-duration asset.

yieldfarmer_actual

Source?

sunmaxi

Physics.

⸻

Stellar Assets Discord, 2059

sunmaxi

Okay.

I changed my mind about the factory thesis.

Stellar royalties are cleaner.

yieldfarmer_actual

lol

sunmaxi

No, seriously.

A star has measurable energy output.

If a Dyson swarm eventually captures some fraction of it, you can model the upper bound.

You’re buying a claim on future harvested energy.

oldBitcoiner

You cannot own a star.

sunmaxi

You could say that about digital property in 2010.

oldBitcoiner

No, this is different.

Governments are obviously going to regulate this.

sunmaxi

Which government?

oldBitcoiner

The UN. United States. Somebody.

sunmaxi

The probe launched eleven years ago.

oldBitcoiner

Then they’ll order it to stop.

sunmaxi

It forked.

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StellarFinance, 2072

FundamentalsMatter

Alpha Centauri Energy Trust is trading at 61x projected annual output.

Sixty-one.

Even assuming 94% swarm coverage and perfect energy transmission, the valuation makes no sense.

longstars

You’re using current compute prices.

FundamentalsMatter

I’m using extremely generous compute prices.

longstars

Current compute prices.

FundamentalsMatter

There physically is not enough energy in the system to justify this valuation.

longstars

People said the same thing at 30x.

FundamentalsMatter

That doesn’t make it less true!

longstars

Have fun staying terrestrial.

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Retirement Forum, 2081

SolarDad81

I’m 24.

Should I just put 15% into the Fifty Star Index?

retiredGenAlpha

Probably.

Just don’t assume stellar energy always goes up.

SolarDad81

How could it not?

There are only so many nearby stars.

retiredGenAlpha

Jesus Christ.

⸻

Void Markets, 2089

nothingburger

Anybody else accumulating Volume 91-B between Sirius and Procyon?

retiredBitcoiner

You are literally buying nothing.

nothingburger

Correct.

retiredBitcoiner

There is no star.

There is no planet.

There is no energy.

There is no infrastructure.

There is nothing there.

nothingburger

Low-latency nothing.

retiredBitcoiner

WHAT DOES THAT EVEN MEAN?

nothingburger

Autonomous shipping traffic between Sirius and Procyon is projected to increase 800% over the next century.

That region is useful for routing, compute relays, storage, and future construction.

retiredBitcoiner

It is empty space.

nothingburger

There’s only so much empty space near civilization.

retiredBitcoiner

There is an effectively infinite amount of space.

nothingburger

Not nearby.

retiredBitcoiner

This is Beanie Babies.

nothingburger

You literally bought Bitcoin.

⸻

Family dinner, 2096

Grandkid

Wait.

You bought Bitcoin when governments could just print more currency?

Me

Yes.

Grandkid

And there were only 21 million?

Me

Yes.

Grandkid

And it was globally transferable?

Me

Yes.

Grandkid

And nobody could make more?

Me

Yes.

Grandkid

Then what was the risk?

Me

It fell 80% every few years.

Grandkid

So you bought more.

Me

Eventually.

Grandkid

That was so obvious.

Me

It absolutely was not obvious.

Grandkid

You bought a fixed-supply asset while the competing currency inflated forever.

Come on.

Me

People thought it was fake internet money.

Grandkid

People were stupid.

Me

I thought $100 was expensive.

Grandkid

You could buy an entire Bitcoin for $100?

Me

Yes.

Grandkid

And you didn’t?

Me

I THOUGHT I MISSED IT.

⸻

Later

Grandkid

Anyway, I bought more void.

Me

No.

Grandkid

What?

Me

Absolutely not.

At least a star produces energy.

You are literally buying nothing.

Grandkid

There is only so much nothing.

Me

You have no idea what it will be worth.

Grandkid

That’s why it’s cheap.

Me

There is no way to value it.

Grandkid

Yet.

Me

Nobody even knows what empty-space rent will look like in a machine economy.

Grandkid

Exactly.

Me

What if the probes just route around it?

Grandkid

Grandpa.

That’s priced in.

Me

This is the stupidest thing I have ever heard.

Grandkid

You said Bitcoin was obvious.

Me

Bitcoin was obvious.

Grandkid

Of course it was.

You already know what happened.